THE FUTURE

Although Moore’s Law may cease to hold at some point in the near future it is still an inevitability that the power of computer processors will increase with each passing year.

Within a matter of a few decades computers many more times powerful than those available today will be in use. These more powerful processors will allow more complicated encryption algorithms to be run within a reasonable time span. This will inevitably lead to the steadily increasing power of encryption systems. The same computing power which makes these computers useful to cryptographers will make them useful to cryptanalysts. The computer shown in Figure 10 is one in use at the Government Communications Headquarters in Cheltenham, with computers hundreds of times more powerful it will become plausible to decrypt many ciphers by a simple brute force attack where it had not been so before. This will probably spell the end of existing cryptosystems, however, other, more complicated ones will be developed in their place. We have already seen this happen. In November 1998 the US Government discontinued its usage of the DES system because what was considered secure upon the algorithms conception is no longer so. A variant of DES called triple-DES will be used until AES (Advanced Encryption System) is ready.

It also seems likely that better factoring algorithms will be developed in the future. Coupled with increasing computing power this may mean the end of RSA, or simply that people will be using larger and larger primes to stay ahead of the cryptanalysts.

There is an inherent danger in attempting to make any definite statements about the future, more often than not they are hilariously inaccurate. However, in my opinion, I believe that the balance between cryptographer and cryptanalyst will be roughly maintained although I think it is likely that the actual volume of encrypted traffic will increase due to individuals using cryptography to protect their privacy. This is of course the great fear of law enforcement agencies who have, for many years, enjoyed the ability to tap phone lines. Attempts to set-up some sort of escrow key system such as what the United States government attempted with the clipper clip may be successful, or they may not. Whatever happens, however, cryptology promises to remain an area of interesting developments for a long time yet.